Roofing Hestia LIVE
Predicts roof replacement within 6 months · owner-occupied, individual owners · BuildZoom permits + FA parcels
11×
lift @15K
0.85
AUC
FL-7
counties
177
features
v24
last ship
Overview. Ranks owner-occupied homes by likelihood of a roof replacement in the next 6 months, for outbound (CallZeke). Calibrated, transferable; replaces the hand-weighted heuristic. The cards below open detail pages.
Detail pages
How it works →
Case-control sampling, prior correction, walk-forward folds, T0 anchor, true-prior calibration.
Pipeline →
The 9-step build end to end — labeling, coverage, enrichment, folds, features, training, calibration, output gate, deploy + monitor.
Model card →
177 features (synth v4 + REM + NOAA + demographics), champion stack, 6-fold mean 11.0×.
Rules →
OO-at-permit (permanent) · individual-owner only · buybox SFH 1–3K sqft, ≤2015, no reroof <10y.
Changelog →
v18 → v24 ship history, retrains, audit verdicts, list deliveries.